For property investors, understanding the UK housing market requires analysing multiple price indexes, each with distinct methodologies. With May 2025 behind us, we examine the latest data from Rightmove, Halifax, ONS, and Nationwide to provide you with an actionable market overview.
1) Rightmove: Asking prices maintain upward trajectory
Rightmove's methodology: Tracks asking prices from new listings on their platform, providing the earliest indicator of market sentiment and seller expectations.
May 2025 (latest data) key points:
- Average asking price: £379,517 (up 0.6% month-on-month)
- Monthly increase: £2,335 from April's £377,182
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Annual growth moderation: Only 1.2% ahead of May 2024
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Market dynamics shifting: Decade-high supply levels constraining price growth
What this index tells us about the UK housing market:
The consistent month-on-month growth in asking prices demonstrates sustained seller optimism, building on April's strong performance. This 0.6% monthly increase suggests sellers remain confident about market demand despite broader economic uncertainties.
Record prices meet market reality: While May achieved another new price record at £379,517, this represents the smallest May increase since 2016, indicating that decade-high supply levels are constraining seller pricing power.
Market maturation signals: Rightmove's Colleen Babcock observes that "this month's price increase being the lowest in May for nine years is a sign of a market that favours buyers and is more subdued than usual." This shift reflects fundamental changes in market dynamics.
Buyer selectivity increases: Rightmove attributes May's constrained price growth partly to weakened buyer demand in April (down 4% year-on-year following stamp duty changes), though this hasn't prevented sales agreements from remaining 5% higher than last year. As Babcock notes: "buyers may well have several similar homes to choose from in their area, and a home which appears over-priced compared to the competition may not get a second look."
Supply surge creates opportunities: The number of new properties coming to market is 14% ahead of last year. Rightmove emphasizes that "spoiled-for-choice buyers are still being tempted by the right property at the right price," highlighting the importance of competitive positioning.
As the earliest market indicator, Rightmove's data often signals market direction 2-3 months before transaction-based indexes reflect actual performance. The steady upward trajectory, supported by accelerating transaction volumes, indicates sellers continue to test higher price points successfully.
2) Halifax: Transaction prices show resilient growth
Halifax's methodology: Based on mortgage approvals from one of the UK's largest lenders, reflecting actual agreed transaction prices rather than asking prices.
April 2025 (latest data) key points:
- Average property price: £297,781 (up 0.3% month-on-month)
- Recovery from March: up £1,082 from March's £296,699
- Consistent growth momentum: Building on positive trajectory from previous months
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Regional leadership: Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland continue strong performance
What this index tells us about the UK housing market:
Transaction resilience: The Halifax data demonstrates solid transaction-based growth, with April's 0.3% monthly increase (£1,082) representing a strong recovery from March. This upward momentum validates the strength seen in asking price data.
Market stability foundation: Halifax's Amanda Bryden notes that "the last six months characterised by a stability in prices rarely seen since the pandemic." Using the real-time data available to investors, prices have shown remarkable consistency around the £297,000-£299,000 range over recent months.
Regional powerhouse performance continues: The Halifax data reinforces the strong performance of Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland, with these markets continuing to significantly outpace England's regions, highlighting compelling investment opportunities beyond traditional markets.
Improving market conditions: Halifax emphasizes that "mortgage rates have continued to fall, with most lenders now offering rates below 4%. Coupled with positive earnings growth that has outpaced broader inflation, these factors have helped to steadily improve affordability for many buyers."
3) ONS: Comprehensive transaction analysis
ONS methodology: Uses data from HM Land Registry, Registers of Scotland, and Land & Property Services Northern Ireland to track final transaction prices across all residential property sales, including cash purchases.
May 2025 data status: Not yet available - ONS publishes with 2-3 month lag
March 2025 (most recent data) key points:
- Average property price: £271,415 (up 1.2% month-on-month)
- Monthly growth accelerating: up from 5.5% annual growth in February
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Regional standout: North East England leading with 14.3% annual growth
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Stamp duty impact: March sales volumes highest since September 2021
What this index tells us about the UK housing market:
Accelerating price momentum: The ONS data shows annual house price inflation has been steadily increasing since the December 2023 low of -2.7%, reaching 6.4% in March 2025. This represents the strongest annual growth rate in over a year, indicating robust underlying market conditions.
Regional powerhouse performance: The North East's extraordinary 14.3% annual growth (up from 8.5% in February) highlights how stamp duty changes disproportionately benefited lower-priced regions. With average prices of just £168,000, the North East offers compelling value propositions for investors.
Transaction volume surge: March 2025 recorded the highest sales volumes since September 2021, driven by buyers rushing to complete before the April stamp duty changes. This activity surge suggests strong underlying demand that extends beyond tax considerations.
London lagging: At just 0.8% annual growth (down from 1.4% in February), London continues to underperform the national average.
4) Nationwide
Nationwide methodology: Combines mortgage approval data with broader market analysis to provide balanced transaction-based pricing.
May 2025 (latest data) key points:
- Average price: £273,427 (up 0.5% month-on-month)
- Strong recovery from April's -0.6% decline
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Annual growth acceleration: 3.5% (up from 3.4% in April)
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Post-stamp duty resilience: Market activity maintaining strength despite policy changes
What this index tells us
Market fundamentals remain robust: Despite the end of stamp duty incentives, Nationwide's Chief Economist Robert Gardner notes that "mortgage approvals data suggests that market activity appears to be holding up well following the end of the stamp duty holiday."
Supporting economic backdrop: Gardner highlights that "unemployment remains low, earnings are rising at a healthy pace (even after accounting for inflation), household balance sheets are strong and borrowing costs are likely to moderate a little if Bank Rate is lowered further."
Location strategy insights: Nationwide's analysis reveals that "average house price growth in predominantly rural locations has continued to outpace more urban areas" with rural areas achieving 23% growth versus 18% in urban areas since December 2019.
Summary and investment implications
The May 2025 data reveals a market entering a more balanced phase where strong supply meets selective buyer behavior. For development finance providers like Shojin, this environment presents both opportunities and considerations for evaluating lending opportunities.
Key factors to monitor:
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Supply-demand rebalancing: 14% more homes for sale than last year, while buyer demand in April fell 4% year-on-year as the market experienced a post-stamp duty hangover following March's transaction surge, creates both challenges and opportunities for developers
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Regional market dynamics: While Northern Ireland shows exceptional growth, London's more measured pace at 1.3% annual growth may present opportunities for development finance where competition for sites and projects could be less intense
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Transaction volumes resilience: Nationwide's 3.5% annual growth and strong month-on-month recovery validates underlying market strength despite stamp duty changes
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Mortgage rate trajectory: Rates below 4% and recent Bank Rate cuts supporting improved affordability for buyers
For investors:
The market's transition toward balance creates a nuanced landscape for evaluating development lending opportunities.
Development opportunity assessment: The shift toward buyer selectivity means developments must be competitively positioned. As Rightmove notes: "buyers may well have several similar homes to choose from in their area, and a home which appears over-priced compared to the competition may not get a second look." This places greater emphasis on developers' market positioning and exit strategy assumptions.
Regional development considerations: Each market presents distinct opportunities - from high-growth areas like Northern Ireland to established markets like London where experienced developers can capitalise on selective buyer behavior. Nationwide's analysis of rural outperformance (23% vs 18% urban growth since 2019) also highlights location-specific opportunities within regional markets.
Market timing considerations: Halifax's stability with prices remaining in the £297,000-£299,000 range provides predictability for development appraisals, while the 5% increase in agreed sales demonstrates that well-positioned developments can still achieve successful exits.
Bottom line: May 2025 data shows a market with solid fundamentals - Nationwide's 3.5% annual growth, Halifax's transaction resilience, and Rightmove's record prices all point to underlying strength despite more selective buyer behavior.
This environment favours development finance opportunities with experienced developers who understand local market positioning and realistic exit strategies.
