--- title: "UK housing market outlook: July 2025 data confirms market rebalancing" description: Read our analysis of the latest housing UK market data for July 2025. Asking prices continue to dip despite robust sales volumes, indicating a shift in the market. image: https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/Blog/2025/08%20August/July%20Market%20Analysis/UK-building-blue-sky.jpg --- Don’t invest unless you’re prepared to lose all the money you invest. This is a high-risk investment and you are unlikely to be protected if something goes wrong. Take 2 minutes to learn more. Risk information **Risk summary for investments in speculative illiquid securities which are arranged by a firm by way of an online platform.**   **Estimated reading time: 2 min**   Due to the potential for losses, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) considers this investment to be very complex and high risk.   **What are the key risks?**   1. **You could lose all the money you invest** - By investing into a real estate project through Shojin you will be investing in a Bond instrument issued by Special Purpose Vehicles (SPV’s) which provide a funding facility for the purpose of real estate development. If the project fails, Investors can lose some or all of the money they invested. - Advertised rates of return aren’t guaranteed. This is not a savings account. If the project doesn’t pay the SPV back as agreed, you could earn less money than expected or nothing at all. A higher advertised rate of return means a higher project risk with an increased probability of losing your money. - Due Diligence and project oversight is carried out by the platform on each Shojin project that you are investing into to assess how well they are expected to perform. However, you should always also do your own research before investing. - These investments are sometimes held in an Innovative Finance ISA (IFISA). While any potential gains from your investment will be tax free, you can still lose all your money. An IFISA does not reduce the risk of the investment or protect you from losses. 2. **You are unlikely to be protected if something goes wrong** - Protection from the Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS), in relation to claims against failed regulated firms, does not cover poor investment performance. [Try the FSCS investment protection checker here.](https://www.fscs.org.uk/check/investment-protection-checker) - Protection from the Financial Ombudsman Service (FOS) does not cover poor investment performance. If you have a complaint against an FCA regulated firm, FOS may be able to consider it. [Learn more about FOS protection here.](https://www.financial-ombudsman.org.uk/consumers) 3. **You are unlikely to get your money back quickly** - This type of property investment could face delays that can delay payments. These investments could also fail altogether and be unable to repay investors their money. - You have the opportunity to sell your investment early through the secondary market but there is no guarantee you will be able to find someone willing to buy. 4. **This is a complex investment** - This investment has a complex structure to ensure the interest of investors is protected. Investments are made into each designated project SPV and are ringfenced from other project SPV's to ensure full transparency of each investment made. - You may wish to get financial advice to understand how the structure works before deciding to invest. 5. **Don’t put all your eggs in one basket** - Putting all your money into a single business or type of investment for example, is risky. Spreading your money across different investments makes you less dependent on any one to do well. - [A good rule of thumb is not to invest more than 10% of your money in high-risk investments.](https://www.fca.org.uk/investsmart/5-questions-ask-you-invest) [If you are interested in learning more about how to protect yourself, visit the FCA’s website here.](https://www.fca.org.uk/investsmart) [For further information about minibonds, visit the FCA’s website here](https://www.fca.org.uk/consumers/mini-bonds). Close [Skip to content](https://www.shojin.co.uk/insights/uk-housing-market-outlook-july-2025-data-confirms-market-rebalancing#main-content) [![shojin-logo](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hs-fs/hubfs/shojin/shojin-logo.png?width=92&height=30&name=shojin-logo.png) ![logo-light](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hs-fs/hubfs/shojin/logo-light.png?width=92&height=30&name=logo-light.png) ![shojin-logo-fixed](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/shojin-logo-fixed.svg)](https://www.shojin.co.uk) - [Invest](https://www.shojin.co.uk/insights/uk-housing-market-outlook-july-2025-data-confirms-market-rebalancing#invest) - [Borrow](https://www.shojin.co.uk/insights/uk-housing-market-outlook-july-2025-data-confirms-market-rebalancing#borrow) - [Learn](https://www.shojin.co.uk/insights/uk-housing-market-outlook-july-2025-data-confirms-market-rebalancing#learn) - [Company](https://www.shojin.co.uk/insights/uk-housing-market-outlook-july-2025-data-confirms-market-rebalancing#company) - 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We share opportunities for global investors to gain exceptional returns. [Why us ![](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/arrow-right-light-white.svg)![](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/arrow-right-light.svg)](https://www.shojin.co.uk/invest/why-us) [Overview ![](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/arrow-right-light.svg)![](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/arrow-right-light-white.svg)](https://www.shojin.co.uk/invest) How to invest [![chart-line-light](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/chart-line-light.svg) ![chart-line-hover](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/chart-line-hover.svg) Products Explore ways to earn interest on capital or income on capital growth](https://www.shojin.co.uk/invest/products) [![chart-bar-light](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/chart-bar-light.svg) ![chart-bar-hover](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/chart-bar-hover.svg) IFISA Invest in a tax efficient way with our Innovative Finance ISA](https://www.shojin.co.uk/invest/products/ifisa) [![circles-three-light](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/circles-three-light.svg) ![circle-three-hover](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/circle-three-hover.svg) Pensions Take control of you pension by using SIPP & SSAS products](https://www.shojin.co.uk/invest/products/pensions) Who is Shojin for [![user-list-light](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/user-list-light.svg) ![user-list-hover](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/user-list-hover.svg) Individuals We make real estate investing more accessible for individual investors](https://www.shojin.co.uk/invest/who-is-shojin-for/individuals) [![chalkboard-teacher-light](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/chalkboard-teacher-light.svg) ![chalkbord-teacher-hover](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/chalkbord-teacher-hover.svg) Family offices Investment opportunities for SFOs, MFOs and HNWs](https://www.shojin.co.uk/invest/who-is-shojin-for/family-offices) [![presentation-chart-light](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/presentation-chart-light.svg) ![presentation-chart-hover](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/presentation-chart-hover.svg) Wealth managers We work with finance professionals and intermediaries to share opportunities](https://www.shojin.co.uk/invest/who-is-shojin-for/wealth-managers) Fund your next project We support borrowers at every step of the journey, from acquisition through to development and exit. [Why us ![](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/arrow-right-light.svg)![](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/arrow-right-light-white.svg)](https://www.shojin.co.uk/borrow/why-us) [Overview ![](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/arrow-right-light-white.svg)![](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/arrow-right-light.svg)](https://www.shojin.co.uk/borrow) Products [![git-fork-light](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/git-fork-light.svg) ![git-fork-light-1](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/git-fork-light-1.svg) Whole loan We provide a combination of senior and junior debt to allow developers to take on larger schemes](https://www.shojin.co.uk/borrow/products/whole-loan) [![house-line-light](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/house-line-light.svg) ![house-line-hover](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/house-line-hover.svg) Mezzanine Top up funding that allows you to minimise your contribution, enhancing your return on capital whilst maintaining full control.](https://www.shojin.co.uk/borrow/products/mezzanine) [![door-light](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/door-light.svg) ![door-hover](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/door-hover.svg) Bridge Short-term senior and junior debt for land acquisition, refinancing, and conversions.](https://www.shojin.co.uk/products/bridge) [![door-light](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/door-light.svg) ![door-hover](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/door-hover.svg) Stabilisation and finish & exit Investment finance for completed or near-complete schemes that need time to optimise value before permanent refinancing or sale.](https://www.shojin.co.uk/stabilisation-finish-exit) How to borrow [![tree-structure-light](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/tree-structure-light.svg) ![tree-structure-hover](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/tree-structure-hover.svg) How it works Our process focuses on delivering an exceptional outcome for all parties.](https://www.shojin.co.uk/borrow/how-it-works) [![laptop-light](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/laptop-light.svg) ![laptop-hover](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/laptop-hover.svg) Apply Submit your application or request a call back](https://www.shojin.co.uk/borrow/how-it-works#APPLY) Elevate your investing Browse our blog for news, features, market update and special reports to build your real estate investing knowledge. [All insights ![](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/arrow-right-light-white.svg)![](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/arrow-right-light.svg)](https://www.shojin.co.uk/insights) Insights [![trophy-light](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/trophy-light.svg) ![trophy-hover](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/trophy-hover.svg) Masterclass Watch our webinars on demand](https://www.shojin.co.uk/insights/tag/masterclass) [![files-light](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/files-light.svg) ![files-hover](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/files-hover.svg) Special reports Read our reports and research](https://www.shojin.co.uk/insights/tag/special-reports) [![notification-light](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/notification-light.svg) ![notification](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/notification.svg) Market updates Expert insight and analysis](https://www.shojin.co.uk/insights/tag/market-updates) [![note-pencil-light](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/note-pencil-light.svg) ![note-pencil-hover](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/note-pencil-hover.svg) Blog Stay up-to-date with news and views](https://www.shojin.co.uk/insights/tag/blog) Resources [![question-light](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/question-light.svg) ![question-hover](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/question-hover.svg) FAQs](https://www.shojin.co.uk/faqs) [![list-dashes-light](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/list-dashes-light.svg) ![list-dashes-hover](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/list-dashes-hover.svg) Glossary Learn and understand some of the terms we use in materials such as investment memorandums.](https://www.shojin.co.uk/glossary) [![video\_library\_FILL0\_wght100\_GRAD0\_opsz24](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/ICONS/New%20Icons/video_library_FILL0_wght100_GRAD0_opsz24.svg) ![Artboard 1](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/ICONS/New%20Icons/Artboard%201.svg) Video explainers Watch our short video FAQs](https://www.shojin.co.uk/video-faqs) Our company Shojin is an FCA-regulated fractional investing platform enabling global investors to build their wealth from UK-based real estate investment opportunities. [Contact us ![](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/arrow-right-light-white.svg)![](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/arrow-right-light.svg)](https://www.shojin.co.uk/company/contact-us) Learn more [![globe-light](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/globe-light.svg) ![globe-hover](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/globe-hover.svg) About us Our mission, vision and purpose](https://www.shojin.co.uk/company/about-us) [![users-three-light](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/users-three-light.svg) ![user-three-hover](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/user-three-hover.svg) Team We're an experienced team of real estate and investment professionals](https://shojin.co.uk/company/about-us#TEAM)   [![list-checks-light](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/list-checks-light.svg) ![list-checks](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/list-checks.svg) Careers Take your career to the next level](https://www.shojin.co.uk/company/careers) [![git-fork-light](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/git-fork-light.svg) ![git-fork-light-1](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/git-fork-light-1.svg) Partnerships Partner with us to increase access to real estate investing](https://www.shojin.co.uk/company/partnerships) [Market updates](https://www.shojin.co.uk/insights/tag/market-updates) [Blog](https://www.shojin.co.uk/insights/tag/blog) 7 min read # UK housing market outlook: July 2025 data confirms market rebalancing For property investors, understanding the UK housing market requires analysing multiple price indexes, each with distinct methodologies. With July 2025 behind us, we examine the latest data from Rightmove, Halifax, ONS, and Nationwide to provide you with an actionable market overview. Last month delivered a stark validation of our June analysis: the buyer power shift is not only real but accelerating. With Rightmove posting its largest July decline in over 20 years and cutting price growth forecasts in half, the evidence is clear—sellers are adapting to a fundamentally rebalanced landscape.     **UK House Price Indices: January 2023 - July 2025** Comparing Rightmove (asking prices) with transaction-based indices     *Source: Rightmove, Halifax, ONS, and Nationwide indices*     ###### 1) Rightmove: Reality check for seller expectations   Rightmove's methodology: Tracks asking prices from new listings on their platform, providing the earliest indicator of seller pricing behaviour and market sentiment shifts.   July 2025 (latest data) key points:   - Average asking price: £373,709 (down 1.2% month-on-month) - Largest July drop: Biggest summer decline in over 20 years of data - Annual growth holding: Just 0.1% ahead of July 2024 - Forecast revision: Growth prediction slashed from 4% to 2% for 2025 What this index tells us about the UK housing market:   Historic rebalancing validates buyer control: July's -1.2% decline follows June's -0.3% drop, representing the most sustained asking price adjustment since the 2008 financial crisis. This isn't seasonal variation—it's sellers fundamentally repricing expectations.   Competition drives realistic pricing: With homes available at decade-high levels, Rightmove reports sellers are "working harder" to capture buyer attention. The portal explicitly notes that "sellers who are over-optimistic on their initial asking price are increasingly at risk of getting lost among the competition."   Regional stratification intensifies: London led monthly declines at -1.5%, with Inner London falling -2.1%. Meanwhile, the North East—the least expensive region—actually gained 1.2%, continuing the pattern where affordability drives performance.   Activity metrics remain robust: Despite price adjustments, sales agreed are 5% higher than July 2024, and buyer enquiries are up 6%. This confirms that competitive pricing is driving transactions rather than dampening market activity. Strategic forecast revision: Rightmove's reduction from 4% to 2% growth for 2025 reflects recognition that "decade-high supply of homes on the market is limiting price growth." This is the most significant mid-year forecast cut since 2008.   July's data confirms that June wasn't an anomaly—sellers have permanently adjusted to enhanced buyer power, creating opportunities for well-positioned developers who understand the new pricing dynamics.     ###### 2) Halifax: Transaction prices follow asking prices   Halifax's methodology: Based on mortgage approvals from one of the UK's largest lenders, reflecting actual agreed transaction prices rather than asking prices.   July 2025 (latest data) key points:   - Average property price: £298,237 (up 0.5% month-on-month) - Strongest monthly growth: Highest increase since January 2025 - Annual growth: +2.4% compared to July 2024 - Regional powerhouse: Northern Ireland leads at +9.3% annually What this index tells us about the UK housing market:   Transaction resilience amid asking price adjustments: Halifax's +0.5% monthly growth against Rightmove's -1.2% decline demonstrates that realistic pricing converts to successful sales. Properties entering the market at competitive prices are achieving completion.   Affordability improvements driving demand: Halifax Head of Mortgages Amanda Bryden notes that "mortgage rates continue to edge downwards" and "lenders are also broadening policy, including increasing loan-to-income caps and lowering some income requirements, which is boosting affordability."   Regional performance reflects affordability: Northern Ireland's 9.3% annual growth, followed by Scotland (+4.7%) and Wales (+2.7%), reinforces that markets with lower absolute prices and stronger affordability are delivering superior returns.   English regional bifurcation: The North West and Yorkshire both recorded 4.0% annual growth versus minimal gains in the South West (+0.2%) and South East (+0.5%). This 3.8 percentage point gap represents the largest regional divergence in recent years.   Underlying demand validation: The strongest monthly growth since January suggests buyers are responding positively to improved pricing and lending conditions, validating the market's direction toward equilibrium.   Halifax data reveals that while asking prices adjust downward, actual transaction prices hold firm when properties are realistically priced—a crucial distinction for development appraisals.     ###### 3) ONS: May data shows post-stamp duty volatility   ONS methodology: Uses data from HM Land Registry, Registers of Scotland, and Land & Property Services Northern Ireland to track final transaction prices across all residential property sales, including cash purchases.   May 2025 (most recent data) key points:   - Average property price: £268,652 (up 1.1% month-on-month) - Recovery from April: Following sharp -2.7% decline in post-stamp duty adjustment - Annual growth resilient: +3.9% compared to May 2024 - Transaction volume recovery: 25% increase to 81,470 transactions (from April's 65,110) What this index tells us about the UK housing market:   Post-stamp duty market recovery evident: May's +1.1% monthly growth represents clear recovery from April's -2.7% decline, showing the market absorbed the stamp duty policy changes and returned to growth.   Comprehensive market coverage validates trends: As the only index capturing both mortgage and cash transactions, ONS data confirms that the stamp duty disruption affected all buyer segments equally, not just mortgage-dependent purchasers.   Transaction volume normalisation underway: While April saw dramatic volume collapse, the gradual recovery in May transaction numbers supports the view that policy-driven timing distortions are fading.   Annual growth maintains momentum: The +3.9% annual growth rate demonstrates underlying market strength despite monthly volatility, reinforcing that spring disruptions represented timing effects rather than fundamental weakness.   Regional patterns align with affordability: ONS data historically shows similar regional performance patterns to the mortgage lender indices, with affordable markets outperforming expensive ones.   The ONS data provides crucial validation that the market rebalancing we're seeing in July represents continued evolution from the stamp duty disruption, rather than new crisis dynamics.     ###### 4) Nationwide: Affordability reached decade-best levels   Nationwide's methodology: Uses building society's mortgage approval data to track transaction prices, with additional focus on affordability metrics and economic context.   July 2025 (latest data) key points:   - Average price: £272,664 (up 0.4% month-on-month) - Annual growth acceleration: +2.4% versus June's +2.1% - Affordability milestone: House price-to-earnings ratio at 5.75x—lowest in over a decade - Mortgage approvals: 64,200 in June, matching pre-pandemic averages What this index tells us about the UK housing market:   Historic affordability improvement: Chief Economist Robert Gardner emphasises that the 5.75x price-to-earnings ratio is "well below the all-time high of 6.9x recorded in 2022 and is currently the lowest this ratio has been for over a decade." This represents a promising shift in market accessibility.   Post-stamp duty market stabilisation: Gardner notes that "looking through the volatility generated by the end of the stamp duty holiday, activity appears to be holding up well." The 64,200 monthly mortgage approvals match pre-pandemic norms despite higher interest rates.   Structural support factors converging: "Strong household balance sheets, low unemployment, and real earnings growth continue to support housing demand," while improved availability of higher loan-to-value mortgages eases deposit constraints.   Rate environment becoming supportive: With five-year fixed mortgages at 4.3% (down from 5.7% peak in late 2023), financing costs are moderating alongside the Bank of England's expected rate cuts.   Recovery trajectory maintained: Despite monthly volatility, the acceleration in annual growth from 2.1% to 2.4% indicates underlying momentum as stamp duty distortions fade.   Nationwide's data provides the most comprehensive view of market fundamentals, showing that improved affordability and stable lending conditions are creating sustainable demand dynamics.   ###### Regional performance and policy support   July 2025 crystallises the regional opportunity framework that savvy investors and developers should be targeting, while the Bank of England's August 7th rate cut to 4.0% provides crucial policy validation.   Regional hierarchy by affordability:   - Top performers (5%+ growth): Northern Ireland (+9.3%), Scotland (+4.7%), North England (+5.5%) - Solid performers (3-4% growth): North West and Yorkshire (+4.0%), Wales (+2.7%) - Challenged markets (sub-1% growth): South West (+0.2%), South East (+0.5%), London (-1.1%) Strategic insight: Markets with average prices below £250k are delivering 3-9% annual growth, while those above £350k struggle to achieve 1%. ONS data historically confirms these patterns across both mortgage and cash transactions.   Policy alignment strengthens outlook: The BoE's narrow 5-4 vote to cut rates despite 3.6% inflation signals confidence that housing market rebalancing and labour market softening outweigh inflation concerns. With 591,000 tracker mortgage holders benefiting immediately (£29 monthly saving per £100k borrowed), the rate environment increasingly supports transaction volumes while reducing development finance costs.     ###### Investment implications and forward outlook   The July data  validates our [June buyer empowerment thesis](https://www.shojin.co.uk/insights/uk-housing-market-outlook-june-2025-data-reveals-power-shift-in-uk-housing) while revealing clear opportunities in this rebalanced market. Key factors to monitor:   - Seller adaptation accelerates: Rightmove's forecast cut from 4% to 2% acknowledges decade-high supply will "continue to mute price growth," translating to more realistic land pricing - Transaction velocity rewards realistic pricing: The divergence between Rightmove's declining asking prices (-1.2%) and Halifax/Nationwide's growing transaction prices (+0.5%, +0.4%) proves competitive pricing drives sales - Regional arbitrage widens: The 10.4 percentage point gap between Northern Ireland (+9.3%) and London (-1.1%) represents the largest regional divergence in years   Development finance considerations:   - Exit pricing discipline: Use transaction prices (Halifax/Nationwide) rather than listing prices (Rightmove) for valuation benchmarks - Geographic focus: Target markets achieving 3%+ annual growth where demand-supply dynamics support pricing power - Timing advantage: Projects ready for spring 2026 benefit from current land pricing while capturing recovery momentum Sustainable rebalancing, not collapse: Mortgage approvals match pre-pandemic levels, buyer enquiries are up 6% annually, and Nationwide's 5.75x price-to-earnings ratio—the best in over a decade—creates genuine purchasing power. This isn't demand destruction; it's healthy market evolution rewarding quality operators.   ###### Bottom line   July 2025 represents the market's evolution from seller control to buyer empowerment—a transition that creates both challenges and opportunities. For development finance, this environment rewards:   - Geographic focus on affordable markets delivering 3%+ annual growth - Conservative exit pricing assumptions based on transaction data rather than listing prices - Quality project development that stands out in high-choice environment - Acquisition timing that captures land price adjustments while securing spring 2026 delivery The rebalancing is real, measurable, and sustainable. Developers who adapt their strategies to this new landscape will find significant opportunities as competitors retreat and land pricing adjusts to market realities.   ---   ##### FAQs *Based on our analysis of July 2025 market data, here are the key questions property investors and developers are asking about current conditions.* ###### Is this the right time to buy property given the price adjustments? Yes, but be selective. With decade-high supply giving buyers enhanced choice and negotiating power, focus on markets achieving 3%+ annual growth where fundamentals remain strong. Nationwide's 5.75x price-to-earnings ratio is the best affordability in over a decade, while mortgage approvals match pre-pandemic levels. The key is targeting regions like Northern Ireland (+9.3%) and Scotland (+4.7%) rather than struggling southern markets. ###### How do I know if a property is realistically priced in this market? Compare asking prices to recent transaction data in the same area. Properties that have been on the market for more than 12 weeks are likely overpriced for current conditions. Look for sellers who've already made price adjustments—Rightmove notes that "serious sellers are more focused than ever, reducing or listing property at much more attractive asking prices." These motivated sellers are where the opportunities lie. ###### Should I adjust my development appraisals for current market conditions? Absolutely. Use transaction prices (Halifax/Nationwide data) rather than asking prices (Rightmove) for exit valuations. Build in 10-15% buyer negotiating power versus pre-2024 assumptions and focus on markets achieving 3%+ annual growth. Factor in extended sales periods but don't assume price collapse—well-positioned developments that acknowledge buyer power dynamics are still completing successfully. ###### Which regions offer the best opportunities for SME developers right now? Target markets with average prices below £250k delivering strong growth: Northern Ireland (+9.3%), Scotland (+4.7%), North West and Yorkshire (+4.0%). The 10.4 percentage point gap between best and worst performing regions represents genuine arbitrage opportunities. Southern markets above £350k face affordability constraints that create additional development risks.   ---   [Written by Shojin](https://www.shojin.co.uk/insights/author/shojin) Published 12 August 2025 Back to top![](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/backto-top.png) Subscribe to newsletter Subscribe to receive the latest Shojin insights and resources to your inbox every week. #### Share this post - [![](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/share-linkedin.svg)](http://www.linkedin.com/shareArticle?mini=true&url=https://www.shojin.co.uk/insights/uk-housing-market-outlook-july-2025-data-confirms-market-rebalancing) - [![](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/share-facebook.svg)](https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=https://www.shojin.co.uk/insights/uk-housing-market-outlook-july-2025-data-confirms-market-rebalancing) - [![](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/share-twitter.svg)](http://twitter.com/intent/tweet?text=https://www.shojin.co.uk/insights/uk-housing-market-outlook-july-2025-data-confirms-market-rebalancing) - [![](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/shojin/icons/share-email.svg)](mailto:?subject=https://www.shojin.co.uk/insights/uk-housing-market-outlook-july-2025-data-confirms-market-rebalancing&body=https://www.shojin.co.uk/insights/uk-housing-market-outlook-july-2025-data-confirms-market-rebalancing) More in this series ## Similar insights you might like [View all](https://www.shojin.co.uk/insights) [![UK new housing](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hs-fs/hubfs/Blog/2025/09%20September/Monthly%20Market/UK-housing-2025.jpg?width=352&name=UK-housing-2025.jpg)](https://www.shojin.co.uk/insights/uk-housing-market-outlook-august-2025-data-shows-high-transaction-volumes-at-lower-prices-clone) [Market updates](https://www.shojin.co.uk/insights/tag/market-updates), [Blog](https://www.shojin.co.uk/insights/tag/blog) ### [Market outlook August 2025: Rising transaction volumes at lower prices](https://www.shojin.co.uk/insights/uk-housing-market-outlook-august-2025-data-shows-high-transaction-volumes-at-lower-prices-clone) For property investors and developers, August 2025 delivered a decisive verdict: market efficiency... 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The risks involved will vary by project types, so please make sure you have read and understood the specific risks associated with the investment. Investments made on this website should only be made as part of a diversified investment portfolio. For more details, see the Key Risks. Projections or estimated returns are not a reliable indicator of actual future performance and eventual returns or dividends may be lower than predicted. Information presented on this website is for guidance purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. If you are unsure of the suitability of an investment, please contact your financial adviser for professional advice. Shojin is a trading name of Shojin Financial Services Limited. This website is a financial promotion approved by Shojin Financial Services Limited which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 716765) (see [www.fca.org.uk/register](https://www.fca.org.uk/firms/financial-services-register) for more information). Companies that issue investments on this platform, including bonds issued by Shojin entities, are not themselves regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and investments made on this site are not covered by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme. The investment opportunities listed on this website are not offers to the public and can only be entered into by certain types of investors who have satisfied certain investment criteria. [![shojin-footer-logo](https://www.shojin.co.uk/hs-fs/hubfs/shojin/shojin-footer-logo.png?width=86&height=31&name=shojin-footer-logo.png)](https://www.shojin.co.uk) © 2026 Shojin — All Rights Reserved ```json { "@context" : "https://schema.org", "@type" : "BlogPosting", "author" : { "@type" : "Person", "name" : "Shojin", "url" : "https://www.shojin.co.uk/insights/author/shojin" }, "dateModified" : "2025-09-09T14:26:14.027Z", "datePublished" : "2025-08-12T08:41:46.000Z", "headline" : "UK housing market outlook: July 2025 data confirms market rebalancing", "image" : [ "https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/Blog/2025/08%20August/July%20Market%20Analysis/UK-building-blue-sky.jpg" ], "mainEntityOfPage" : { "@id" : "https://www.shojin.co.uk/insights/uk-housing-market-outlook-july-2025-data-confirms-market-rebalancing", "@type" : "WebPage" }, "publisher" : { "@type" : "Organization", "logo" : { "@type" : "ImageObject", "url" : "https://www.shojin.co.uk/hubfs/Signature%20-%20logo.png" }, "name" : "Shojin Property Partners" } } ``` ```json { "@context" : "https://schema.org", "@type" : "FAQPage", "mainEntity" : [ { "@type" : "Question", "acceptedAnswer" : { "@type" : "Answer", "text" : "Yes, but be selective. With decade-high supply giving buyers enhanced choice and negotiating power, focus on markets achieving 3%+ annual growth where fundamentals remain strong. Nationwide's 5.75x price-to-earnings ratio is the best affordability in over a decade, while mortgage approvals match pre-pandemic levels. The key is targeting regions like Northern Ireland (+9.3%) and Scotland (+4.7%) rather than struggling southern markets." }, "name" : "Is this the right time to buy property given the price adjustments?" }, { "@type" : "Question", "acceptedAnswer" : { "@type" : "Answer", "text" : "Compare asking prices to recent transaction data in the same area. Properties that have been on the market for more than 12 weeks are likely overpriced for current conditions. Look for sellers who've already made price adjustments—Rightmove notes that 'serious sellers are more focused than ever, reducing or listing property at much more attractive asking prices.' These motivated sellers are where the opportunities lie." }, "name" : "How do I know if a property is realistically priced in this market?" }, { "@type" : "Question", "acceptedAnswer" : { "@type" : "Answer", "text" : "Absolutely. Use transaction prices (Halifax/Nationwide data) rather than asking prices (Rightmove) for exit valuations. Build in 10-15% buyer negotiating power versus pre-2024 assumptions and focus on markets achieving 3%+ annual growth. Factor in extended sales periods but don't assume price collapse—well-positioned developments that acknowledge buyer power dynamics are still completing successfully." }, "name" : "Should I adjust my development appraisals for current market conditions?" }, { "@type" : "Question", "acceptedAnswer" : { "@type" : "Answer", "text" : "Target markets with average prices below £250k delivering strong growth: Northern Ireland (+9.3%), Scotland (+4.7%), North West and Yorkshire (+4.0%). The 10.4 percentage point gap between best and worst performing regions represents genuine arbitrage opportunities. Southern markets above £350k face affordability constraints that create additional development risks." }, "name" : "Which regions offer the best opportunities for SME developers right now?" } ] } ``` ```json { "@context" : "https://schema.org", "@type" : "Dataset", "creator" : { "@type" : "Organization", "name" : "Shojin", "url" : "https://www.shojin.co.uk" }, "dateModified" : "2025-08-21", "datePublished" : "2025-08-12", "description" : "Comparative analysis of Rightmove, Halifax, ONS, and Nationwide house price indices for July 2025, including regional performance and market implications", "distribution" : [ { "@type" : "DataDownload", "contentUrl" : "https://www.shojin.co.uk/insights/uk-housing-market-outlook-july-2025-data-confirms-market-rebalancing", "encodingFormat" : "text/html" } ], "keywords" : [ "UK house prices", "property market data", "Rightmove", "Halifax", "ONS", "Nationwide", "regional analysis" ], "name" : "UK House Price Analysis July 2025", "publisher" : { "@type" : "Organization", "name" : "Shojin", "url" : "https://www.shojin.co.uk" }, "spatialCoverage" : "United Kingdom", "temporalCoverage" : "2025-07", "url" : "https://www.shojin.co.uk/insights/uk-housing-market-outlook-july-2025-data-confirms-market-rebalancing", "variableMeasured" : [ { "@type" : "PropertyValue", "description" : "Monthly average asking prices from property listings", "name" : "Average asking price" }, { "@type" : "PropertyValue", "description" : "Actual agreed sale prices from mortgage data", "name" : "Transaction prices" }, { "@type" : "PropertyValue", "description" : "Price performance by UK region", "name" : "Regional price variations" } ] } ```