October 2025 delivered minimal nominal price growth across all major indices—Halifax +0.6%, Nationwide +0.3%, Rightmove +0.3% monthly—with year-on-year growth holding steady at 2-2.5% for completed sales. Asking prices turned negative annually for the second consecutive month at -0.14%, extending the divergence between seller aspirations and transaction reality.
Despite intense speculation around property tax reforms ahead of the 26th November Budget, September mortgage approvals reached 65,944, the highest level since December 2024, demonstrating underlying demand resilience. Last month's data confirms the structure established over summer: transaction volumes stable at pre-pandemic levels, regional performance diverging based on affordability fundamentals, and pricing discipline remaining essential to achieving sales.
1) Rightmove: Second consecutive negative annual reading
Rightmove's methodology: Tracks asking prices from new listings, providing the earliest indicator of seller pricing behaviour and market sentiment shifts.
October 2025 key points:
- Average asking price: £371,422 (up 0.3% month-on-month)
- Annual change: -0.14% (second consecutive negative reading)
- Year-to-date: +1.43% (essentially flat)
- Sales agreed year-to-date: +5% versus 2024
- Activity: Buyer demand and new listings both down -5% versus September 2024
What this index tells us about the UK housing market:
Nominal recovery masks structural weakness: October's +0.3% monthly uptick follows September's +0.4% recovery, but both figures remain weaker than typical autumn seasonality which averages +1.1% for October historically. More critically, the -0.14% annual decline represents the second consecutive negative year-on-year comparison—the first such sequence since early 2024. Asking prices have now underperformed transaction prices for five consecutive months, with the gap between Rightmove's asking price growth and Halifax's +1.9% transaction price growth spanning 2.0 percentage points.
Budget uncertainty acknowledged but not quantified: Rightmove's October report explicitly notes that "rumours of what could be announced in the upcoming Budget have created uncertainty, particularly in higher-priced areas where widely rumoured tax changes could have a bigger impact." However, Rightmove frames this as affecting timing rather than preventing transactions entirely—sales agreed remain +5% higher year-to-date versus 2024, demonstrating underlying activity resilience despite speculative concerns.
Supply at decade-high creates buyer empowerment: Rightmove reports "a decade-high level of property choice for buyers," forcing sellers to acknowledge "limited pricing power" and "moderate their price expectations." This elevated inventory explains why October's +0.3% asking price increase falls well short of the historical +1.1% average for October.
2) Halifax: Transaction prices show modest resilience
Halifax methodology: Based on mortgage approval data from major lender transactions, reflecting actual agreed prices rather than initial seller aspirations.
October 2025 key points:
- Average property price: £299,862 (up 0.6% month-on-month)
- Annual growth: +1.9% (up from September's +1.3%)
- Year-to-date: +0.24% (minimal growth)
- Regional leadership: Northern Ireland at +8.0% annually
What this index tells us about the UK housing market:
Modest monthly uptick within annual stability band: Halifax Head of Mortgages Amanda Bryden characterises October's +0.6% monthly gain as continuing "price growth supported by earnings outpacing house prices and an improving outlook for mortgage rates." The acceleration from September's +1.3% to October's +1.9% annual growth represents a 60 basis point uptick, keeping Halifax firmly within the 2-2.5% growth band established throughout 2025.
Regional divergence reaches historic extremes: Halifax's October regional data reveals the starkest north-south divide in recent memory. Northern Ireland's +8.0% annual growth (up from +6.4% in September) leads all regions, while London achieved -0.3% annual decline and the South East -0.1%. This 8.3 percentage point gap between strongest and weakest performing regions represents unprecedented divergence, driven entirely by affordability fundamentals rather than credit availability or broader economic conditions.
Affordable northern markets accelerating: The North East (+4.1%), Scotland (+4.4%), and Wales (+2.0%) all delivered solid annual growth well above national averages. Critically, Northern Ireland's acceleration from +6.4% to +8.0% in a single month demonstrates genuine momentum in the UK's most affordable region (£219,646 average price versus £542,273 in London).
London's structural underperformance confirmed: London's -0.3% annual decline marks the weakest performance of any UK region in Halifax's dataset. Combined with Rightmove's -1.4% asking price decline, this confirms London faces structural pricing pressure from elevated supply, affordability constraints, and Budget uncertainty concentrated in the £500k+ segment where 59% of London transactions occur.
3) Nationwide: Marginal growth continues amid policy uncertainty
Nationwide methodology: Uses building society's mortgage approval data to track transaction prices, with additional focus on affordability metrics and economic context.
October 2025 key points:
- Average price: £272,226 (up 0.3% month-on-month)
- Annual growth: +2.4% (up from September's +2.2%)
- Year-to-date: +1.50%
- Three-month trend (Aug-Oct): +0.5%
What this index tells us about the UK housing market:
Minimal monthly movement demonstrates equilibrium: Nationwide's +0.3% monthly gain—just £231 on the average property—represents marginal rather than meaningful price movement. Chief Economist Robert Gardner characterises the market as having "remained broadly stable in recent months, with house prices rising at a modest pace and the number of mortgages approved for house purchase maintained at similar levels to those prevailing before the pandemic struck."
Annual growth holds within established band: The uptick from +2.2% to +2.4% annual growth (20 basis points) keeps Nationwide firmly within the 2-2.5% range established throughout 2025. Gardner notes this stability exists "against a backdrop of subdued consumer confidence and signs of weakening in the labour market," suggesting the housing market demonstrates resilience despite broader economic headwinds.
Housing market activity framed as "resilient": Nationwide's characterisation of market performance as indicating "resilience, especially since mortgage rates are more than double the level they were before Covid struck and house prices are close to all time highs" acknowledges the paradox of stable transaction volumes despite elevated financing costs and record valuations. This resilience reflects improved affordability dynamics with wage growth outpacing price growth for nearly three years, rather than speculation or unsustainable demand.
4) ONS: August data confirms affordable market leadership
ONS methodology: Uses data from HM Land Registry, Registers of Scotland, and Land & Property Services Northern Ireland to track final transaction prices across all residential property sales, including cash purchases.
August 2025 (most recent data) key points:
- Average property price: £272,995 (up 0.6% month-on-month from July)
- Most comprehensive coverage: Includes all cash and mortgage transactions
- Two-month lag: October ONS data unavailable until December release
What this index tells us about the UK housing market:
ONS data, while lagging by approximately two months, provides the most comprehensive view of actual transaction prices by including cash purchases alongside mortgaged transactions. The +0.6% monthly gain from July to August demonstrates that completed sales continued processing through the summer period without material disruption, consistent with the equilibrium narrative established across all indices.
When November's ONS release provides September and October data, it will offer the most complete picture of whether Budget uncertainty affected transaction patterns across different price points and geographies. The ONS index remains the authoritative source for understanding complete market coverage, particularly for development finance lenders focused on cash-buyer segments.
Mortgage market: BOE's September approvals release defies Budget concerns
While October price data shows modest monthly gains and 2-2.5% annual growth, September mortgage approval figures—released late October—provide critical insight into buyer behaviour during peak Budget speculation.
September 2025 mortgage approval key points:
- Mortgage approvals: 65,944 (highest since December 2024)
- Average mortgage rate: 4.19% (lowest since January 2023)
- Year-on-year comparison: Up +9.3% versus September 2024's 60,360 approvals
- Monthly trajectory: Stable around 65,000 since summer
Approvals reached highest level in 10 months despite Budget speculation:
September's 65,944 approvals represent the strongest monthly performance since December 2024's 65,981 approvals. This occurred precisely when Budget speculation intensified, suggesting underlying demand fundamentals overwhelmed policy uncertainty for most buyers. The +9.3% year-on-year increase demonstrates genuine market resilience rather than seasonal variation.
Mortgage rate improvements drive affordability gains: The average mortgage rate fell to 4.19% in September—the lowest level since January 2023—providing material affordability improvements exceeding any nominal price increases. For a typical £250,000 mortgage, the decline from 5.5% rates in early 2024 to 4.19% in September 2025 saves approximately £225 monthly, or £2,700 annually. This represents a genuine purchasing power increase that more than offsets modest house price growth.
Budget uncertainty appears concentrated in specific segments: The stable-to-increasing approval trend suggests Budget speculation primarily affected higher-value southern markets where rumoured CGT and stamp duty changes would apply. The broader mortgage market—serving properties below £500,000 outside London and southern England—demonstrated no material disruption. This segment represents approximately 80% of national transaction volumes.
September's data shows Budget uncertainty created noise rather than structural demand disruption. The critical test arrives post-Budget—clarity matters more than the specific policy outcome.
Investment implications for development finance
October 2025 confirms the market equilibrium established throughout the year: transaction prices growing 2-2.5% annually, mortgage approvals stable around 65,000 monthly, and regional divergence accelerating based on affordability fundamentals. For development finance, this rewards disciplined regional selection and conservative pricing assumptions over market timing strategies.
Mortgage affordability improvements matter more than price movements: Average mortgage rates declining to 4.19%—lowest since January 2023—provide £225 monthly savings on typical £250,000 mortgages versus early 2024 rates. This genuine purchasing power increase exceeds nominal price growth and supports ongoing demand. Development finance should focus on products aligned with lender criteria at current rates rather than betting on further rate improvements.
Regional strategy remains paramount: Northern Ireland's +8.0% growth versus London's -0.3% decline represents 8.3 percentage point divergence—the widest regional gap in recent data. Development strategies should overweight affordable northern markets where transaction velocity, price growth, and Budget policy risk all favour developers. Southern exposure requires material pricing discipline and acceptance of compressed margins.
Summary
October 2025 shows the housing market operating in established equilibrium despite intense Budget speculation. Transaction prices grew 2-2.5% annually across Halifax and Nationwide, mortgage approvals reached 10-month highs at 65,944, and regional divergence accelerated to historic extremes with 8+ percentage point gaps between strongest and weakest markets.
For development finance, the strategic framework is clear: prioritise affordable northern markets delivering 3-8% annual growth with faster transaction velocity, use conservative transaction price data for southern market exit assumptions, and recognise that Budget policy risk concentrates in the £500k+ southern segment representing just 22% of national volumes.
The fundamentals—stable mortgage approvals at pre-pandemic levels, improving affordability through wage growth and lower rates, and regional differentiation based on affordability—support this operating environment continuing through year-end regardless of specific Budget outcomes.
FAQs
Based on our analysis of October 2025 market data, here are the key questions property investors and developers are asking about current conditions.
How significant is the second consecutive month of negative asking price growth?
It's structurally meaningful. Rightmove's -0.14% annual asking price decline for October follows September's -0.1% reading—the first back-to-back negative sequence since early 2024. Asking prices have underperformed transaction prices for five straight months, with a 2.0 percentage point gap between Rightmove's performance and Halifax's transaction prices. The divergence shows sellers haven't adjusted pricing expectations to match buyer reality, particularly in expensive southern markets.
Should September's 65,944 mortgage approvals change my view of Budget impact?
Yes, materially. September approvals reached the highest level since December 2024—up 9.3% year-on-year—precisely when Budget speculation intensified. Combined with average rates falling to 4.19% (lowest since January 2023), this demonstrates underlying demand fundamentals overwhelmed policy uncertainty for most buyers. Budget concerns appear concentrated in the £500k+ southern segment representing just 22% of national transaction volumes.
Is Northern Ireland's +8.0% annual growth sustainable?
The growth appears structurally supported. Northern Ireland accelerated from +6.4% in September to +8.0% in October, continuing consistent outperformance throughout 2025. The £219,646 average price remains less than half London's £542,273, creating genuine affordability advantages. This performance occurs alongside stable mortgage approvals and improving financing costs—it's not speculative demand driving unsustainable appreciation. Northern Ireland combines fundamental affordability, strong wage growth relative to housing costs, and tight supply-demand balance.
How should London's negative growth affect development finance decisions?
London's -0.3% annual transaction price decline (Halifax) and -1.4% asking price decline (Rightmove) require material strategy adjustments. Development projects in London need conservative GDV assumptions, extended marketing period provisions, and acceptance of compressed margins. Build in 5-10% pricing buffer versus current transaction data to account for potential further weakness. Alternatively, the regional performance gap suggests capital reallocation toward affordable northern markets delivers superior risk-adjusted returns.
What should I watch for in November's data to validate the market stability thesis?
Three key indicators: First, whether October mortgage approvals remained around 65,000 or showed material deviation. Second, whether November price indices show immediate post-Budget response. Third, whether regional divergence continues accelerating or moderates. If November shows Northern Ireland at 9%+ and London at -1% or worse, it confirms affordability fundamentals are completely dominating market behaviour.
Analysis compiled November 2025 using official housing market data from Rightmove, Halifax, Nationwide, ONS, and Bank of England mortgage statistics.
