For property investors, understanding the UK housing market requires analysing multiple price indexes, each with distinct methodologies. With June 2025 behind us, we examine the latest data from Rightmove, Halifax, ONS, and Nationwide to provide you with an actionable market overview.
1) Rightmove: Reality check for seller expectations
Rightmove's methodology: Tracks asking prices from new listings on their platform, providing the earliest indicator of market sentiment and seller expectations.
June 2025 (latest data) key points:
- Average asking price: £378,240 (down 0.3% month-on-month)
- Monthly decrease: -£1,277 from May's record £379,517
- Annual growth holding: Still 0.8% ahead of June 2024
- Supply surge impact: Decade-high competition forcing price adjustments
What this index tells us about the UK housing market:
Unusual June decline signals market shift: For the first time in recent years, June asking prices have fallen rather than maintained their seasonal pattern. This -£1,277 monthly decline represents a fundamental shift in seller behaviour as decade-high supply levels force realistic pricing.
Delayed stamp duty impact emerges: Rightmove notes that "we're now seeing the decade-high level of homes for sale, and the recent stamp duty increases in England, have a delayed impact on new sellers' pricing." The April stamp duty changes are only now filtering through to seller expectations.
Regional divergence intensifies: Higher-priced southern regions and the capital have seen larger price drops this month, being more affected by higher stamp duty charges, while prices in the more affordable North West, Wales and Yorkshire & The Humber have risen quickest this month.
Buyer power dynamics: Rightmove emphasises that "agents have been telling us that sellers need to set a competitive price to have a better chance of finding a buyer in the current market, and it looks like many are listening and responding to that message."
Sales momentum maintains strength: Despite asking price adjustments, May saw the highest number of sales agreed in any month since March 2022, as properties marketed at the right price and presented in top condition continue to attract buyers.
As the market's earliest indicator, Rightmove's June decline signals that sellers are adapting to new market realities. The encouraging news for investors is that buyer activity remains robust - properties priced competitively are still achieving strong sales volumes.
2) Halifax: Market resilience amid price stability
Halifax's methodology: Based on mortgage approvals from one of the UK's largest lenders, reflecting actual agreed transaction prices rather than asking prices.
June 2025 (latest data) key points:
- Average property price: £296,665 (flat at 0.0% month-on-month)
- Market stability: Following -0.3% decline in May
- Annual growth steady: +2.5% compared to June 2024
- Transaction recovery: Mortgage approvals and activity picking up
What this index tells us about the UK housing market:
Fundamental market resilience: Halifax notes that "the UK housing market remained steady in June, with the average property price effectively unchanged over the month" and that "the market's resilience continues to stand out."
Post-stamp duty recovery underway: After a brief slowdown following the spring stamp duty changes, mortgage approvals and property transactions have both picked up, with more buyers returning to the market.
Supporting economic factors: Halifax highlights that this recovery is "being helped by a few key factors: wages are still rising, which is easing some of the pressure on affordability, and interest rates have stabilised in recent months, giving people more confidence to plan ahead."
Regulatory tailwinds: Lenders have also responded to new regulatory guidance by taking a more flexible approach to affordability assessments. Over the last two months, we've already helped an additional 3,000 buyers – including more than 1,000 first-time buyers – access a mortgage they wouldn't have qualified for before.
The Halifax data demonstrates that while asking prices are adjusting, actual transaction prices remain stable. This suggests the market is finding equilibrium through improved buyer selection rather than dramatic price corrections.
3) ONS: Stamp duty surge quantified
ONS methodology: Uses data from HM Land Registry, Registers of Scotland, and Land & Property Services Northern Ireland to track final transaction prices across all residential property sales, including cash purchases.
April 2025 (most recent data) key points:
- Average property price: £265,497 (down 2.7% month-on-month)
- Sharp monthly decline: Following March's pre-stamp duty surge
- Annual growth resilient: +3.5% compared to April 2024
- Transaction volume collapse: 64% drop in April completions
- Regional powerhouse: North West leading at +8.0% annual growth
What this index tells us about the UK housing market:
Stamp duty cliff edge quantified: The ONS data provides the most comprehensive view of the April stamp duty impact, showing how the March surge (+1.2% monthly growth) was followed by April's sharp -2.7% correction as the market absorbed policy changes.
Transaction volume tells the real story: HMRC data reveals that transaction volumes plummeted 64% in April - the most dramatic policy-driven market disruption since the 2008 financial crisis. This represents the clearest evidence of how tax changes can distort market timing.
Regional resilience patterns: Despite national volatility, the North West continues to demonstrate exceptional performance with +8.0% annual growth, reinforcing the investment case for affordable regional markets where stamp duty impacts are proportionally smaller.
Cash market insights: As the only index capturing cash transactions alongside mortgage-based sales, ONS data reveals that non-mortgage buyers were equally affected by timing pressures, suggesting the stamp duty changes influenced all buyer segments.
Market recovery indicators: The fact that annual growth remains positive at +3.5% despite the monthly volatility indicates underlying market strength. The sharp April decline represents timing distortion rather than fundamental weakness.
The ONS data provides crucial context for understanding June's performance - current price adjustments reflect policy-driven market timing rather than economic deterioration.
4) Nationwide: Sharp correction reflects stamp duty impact
Nationwide's methodology: Combines mortgage approval data with broader market analysis to provide balanced transaction-based pricing.
June 2025 (latest data) key points:
- Average price: £271,619 (down 0.8% month-on-month)
- Sharpest decline: Largest monthly fall since February 2023
- Annual growth moderating: Slowing to 2.1% from May's 3.5%
- Stamp duty aftermath: Weaker demand following April tax changes
What this index tells us about the UK housing market:
Stamp duty impact quantified: Nationwide's Chief Economist Robert Gardner attributes the softening to "weaker demand following the increase in stamp duty at the start of April." The 0.8% monthly decline represents the clearest measurement of policy impact on transaction prices.
Underlying conditions remain supportive: Despite current headwinds, Gardner emphasises that "underlying conditions for potential homebuyers in the UK remain supportive. The unemployment rate remains low, earnings are rising at a healthy pace in real terms (i.e. after accounting for inflation), household balance sheets are strong and borrowing costs are likely to moderate a little if Bank Rate is lowered further."
Summer recovery expected: Nationwide expects "activity to pick up as the summer progresses, despite ongoing economic uncertainties in the global economy, since underlying conditions for potential homebuyers in the UK remain supportive."
Regional performance variations: Northern Ireland continues to lead with 9.7% annual growth, while East Anglia shows the weakest performance at just 1.1% year-on-year growth.
The Nationwide data provides the starkest view of stamp duty's impact, but also reinforces that this represents a policy-driven adjustment rather than fundamental market weakness.
Investment implications and market outlook
The June 2025 data marks a clear shift toward buyer control in the UK housing market. Unlike previous months where sellers tested ever-higher asking prices, June shows sellers adapting to new realities as decade-high supply levels meet selective buyer behaviour.
Key factors to monitor:
Pricing reality meets market forces: The convergence of Rightmove's -0.3% asking price decline and Nationwide's -0.8% transaction price drop suggests sellers and buyers are aligning expectations more rapidly than typical seasonal patterns would predict.
Supply-side dynamics: With 14% more homes on the market than a year ago, greater choice for buyers is a key factor holding back house prices. However, the number of sales being agreed continues to run at the fastest rate for 4 years, indicating healthy underlying demand.
Regional investment opportunities: In places with cheaper properties, house prices are rising more quickly. House prices are 2.7% higher in markets with average house prices below £200k, and 1.9% higher in markets priced between £200k and £250k.
Transaction volume context: While HMRC shows May transactions up 25.1% monthly, this recovery follows the dramatic post-stamp duty adjustment. Analysis of the full cycle shows 88,200 extra transactions in February-March were partially offset by 46,600 fewer sales in the two months since the holiday ended—leaving a net positive effect but highlighting ongoing adjustment pressures.
Development finance considerations:
Project positioning becomes critical: As Rightmove notes, "serious sellers are more focused than ever, reducing or listing property at much more attractive asking prices." Development projects must account for buyers' enhanced negotiating power and price sensitivity.
Regional strategy refinement: The data supports targeted approaches to different markets. While London and southern regions face affordability and supply pressures, northern regions continue delivering above-average returns for well-positioned developments.
Exit strategy realism: Zoopla emphasises that "the key message for sellers is the need to be realistic on pricing if you want to move home in 2025." Development appraisals should incorporate more conservative exit pricing assumptions.
Forward price expectations: Industry projections based on seasonal trends now point to year-end growth of just 1.3%, down significantly from earlier 2.1% expectations, reflecting how June's buyer power shift is reshaping market dynamics for the remainder of 2025.
Bottom line
June 2025 represents a definitive shift to buyer control rather than another transitional phase. For development finance, this environment rewards projects that acknowledge the new power dynamics where buyers have enhanced choice and negotiating leverage.
- Realistic pricing strategies that account for buyer negotiating power
- Strong market positioning in their local context
- Conservative exit assumptions that reflect current buyer behaviour
- Regional focus aligned with affordability and supply dynamics
The encouraging news is that transaction volumes remain strong and economic fundamentals supportive. This suggests a market recalibration rather than collapse—creating opportunities for experienced developers who can navigate the new landscape effectively.
