The case for Kent: Commuter towns market analysis Q2 2025

Kent's prime commuter corridor continues delivering defensive performance in 2025, with established towns substantially outpacing regional benchmarks despite broader market evolution.

Key performance metrics

Price performance:

• Sevenoaks district: £536k average house price: +7.7% YoY vs +3.0% South East (Source: ONS, April 2025)

• Edenbridge: £455k average: +0% YoY (Rightmove sold prices, March 2025)

• First-time buyer activity: £408k average (+8.3% YoY) (ONS Sevenoaks District, April 2025)

• Rental growth: +7.6% vs +6.6% regional (ONS Sevenoaks District, April 2025)

Market context:

At the county level, Kent property transactions halved 2021-2023, with new build sales down 93% H1 2023 vs 2022. However, prime commuter towns bucked this trend due to structural supply constraints and enduring demand from London residents relocating out of the city.

Despite broader national trends showing increased buyer power through higher supply levels, Kent's commuter towns maintain pricing strength through structural supply constraints.

Supply-demand fundamentals

• Housing requirement: 10,680 homes by 2040

• Baseline delivery capacity: 8,500 homes

• Supply gap: 2,180 homes (20.4% shortfall)

Similar dynamics affect commuter towns across West Kent, where development land availability remains constrained despite clear housing demand.

Transport infrastructure advantage

Connectivity premium:

Kent commuter towns benefit from established rail infrastructure serving London workforce:

• 25-45 minute journey times to central London

• Multiple M25 access points

• Established transport hubs in towns like Sevenoaks, Edenbridge, Tunbridge Wells

Regional context

2024 Kent Property Market Report identifies residential as "hardest sector to predict" following mortgage volatility. However, commuter locations with strong London transport links showing price increases as some secondary towns experienced decline.

Forward outlook

Growth drivers intact:

• Structural undersupply across commuter belt

• Transport connectivity advantage vs competing regions further afield

• Enduring London workforce demographic demand (outward migration, particularly by affluent workers, from the capital to surrounding counties has been a notable trend for over a century)

Risks:

• Mortgage rate sensitivity and interest rates

• Construction cost pressures

• Planning policy uncertainty

Savills forecast: 18.2% South East price growth to 2028, with prime commuter locations capturing disproportionate share.

Investment implications

Kent's commuter corridor presents defensive characteristics through:

• Supply constraints maintaining pricing power across established towns

• Transport infrastructure supporting demand resilience

• Demographic fundamentals (skilled workforce, family demand)

• Policy momentum supporting housing delivery in sustainable locations

Supply shortfalls across multiple commuter towns suggest these dynamics will persist through the current development cycle, supporting continued outperformance versus regional averages.

References

1. ONS Housing Data: Housing prices in Sevenoaks - Office for National Statistics, April 2025

2. Edenbridge Market Data: House Prices in Edenbridge - Rightmove, 2025

3. Kent Market Performance: Kent Property Market Report 2024 - Kent County Council & Caxtons

4. Planning Consents Data: Market in Minutes: Residential Development Land Q3 2024 - Savills Research

5. Local Plan Requirements: Sevenoaks District Council Local Plan 2040 - Sevenoaks District Council

6. Regional Forecast: UK Property Market 2025 Predictions - Hunter Finance, October 2024 

Analysis compiled July 2025 using official government data, established property research sources, and local planning documentation.